The Tangled Web We Weave

We've all heard about how personal auto ownership is on the rise in China. There's a graph everyone likes to show of China's GDP and auto ownership that shows them both rocketing up in the last 20 years. One version of it is at right, from K. Riley, "Motor vehicles in China: the impact of demographic and economic changes," Population and Environment, 23(5), p. 479 - 494. So, personal incomes are rising in China and people can afford the cars that they want for status and convenience. Not exactly rocket science.

The interesting part of all of this is the policy that lies behind the graphs. Don't make the mistake of thinking that all Chinese cities have the same kind of transportation policies. In fact, there is a remarkable diversity of policies on everything from electric bikes to auto permits to jaywalking that reflect the varying cultures of different places in the country. In Shanghai, were I noted previously that cars are nothing novel, an ownership permit costs a whopping 50,000 RMB (about $6,250), and that's in addition to buying the car, insurance, fuel (heavily taxed), etc. Now that's some transportation demand management! In Beijing, however, as of 2000 the permit to own a car is basically free. Additionally, all quotas on permits have been lifted. There are 3,000,000 cars on the road in Beijing and 1,000 more hit the road every day. Suffice to say, infrastructure supply is lagging behind and that means major congestion.

This is a paradox. Beijing is trying with all its might to clean up the air in anticipation of the 2008 Olympics. Why have this policy that undermines that effort? The answer is that the Beijing government has a lot of fish to fry, and sometimes they overlap. Here are the other agenda items:

1) Shanghai charges for permits. Beijing is better than Shanghai, so forget that!
2) Also in 2000, a new Hyundai factory opened in Beijing, providing much-wanted jobs, and keeping Hyundai happy is an important economic development strategy
3) The government gets a lot of tax income from car sales

In short, car manufacturing is a "pillar industry" in China now, and the domestic market is a way to double-dip on that economically. I am honestly in doubt about what is going to happen when foreign athletes arrive to compete in the Games and find that they can't do their best because they have throat infections from the dizzying, smothering haze of smog that hangs over Beijing basically every day. I'm not exaggerating - I have one right now, my snot has turned a truly insane color, my lymph nodes are swollen, and I spend maybe a total of 60 minutes outside on any given day. There's been a lot of hype about Beijing's success with improving air quality, but that says more about what it was like before than what it's like now. Check out the picture at left. Still no direct sunlight in the 'after' image!

The bigwigs in Beijing have always been pros at ignoring or rationalizing inconvenient contradictions. What will they do with this one?